Back in November, 2023 I wrote a detailed prediction post of NCAA Triathlon Nationals that ended up being incredibly accurate. One thing I need to mention is that leading into NCAA Triathlon Nationals almost every team and their top athletes race 2-4 times in the 2 months leading into Nationals so there is a lot more recent and relevant data for me to analyze and pull from. In Club Triathlon that is not the case. Many east coast and central conferences have not raced since October. Therefore, to detail a full top 100 prediction model without the correct data is simply not possible for Collegiate Club Nationals which take place in Mission Viejo, CA on April 13th-14th. As a result, for this blog post I will put some names into the categories of Favorites (for the podium) and Contenders (for top 5 - 20th). If your name or the name of another contender is not on this list, I do not have anything against you or think you cannot win. I can almost guarantee that someone not listed on this list will do very well. It has happened since I raced Collegiate Club Nationals back in the 2011-15 era. If you don't see your name on here, email or DM me some results. If you did not race at your conference championship last year or this year there is no way for me to have you listed in this unless if someone emailed or DMs me about you.
It is also almost impossible to know who is returning back to their program as grade is not listed in last years results and there is no "eligibility limits" for grad students in collegiate club triathlon as long as someone is a full time student. So if someone was top 20 at Nationals last year and is returning but not listed below, email or DM me and let me know!
This is my best effort to help promote a sport that doesn't get much promotion these days. Lastly, the names are listed in no particular order:
Men's Contenders
Name | School | Conference Result | Nationals 23' |
Prashanth Ganesh | Berkeley | 3rd | OLY - 20th |
Dmitriy Major | UCSD | 4th | OLY - 47th |
Johnathan Dolan | Berkeley | 5th | Dl - 16th, OLY - 17th |
Nick Dorn | Stanford | 6th | DL - 23rd, OLY - 59th |
Matheus Menezes | CU Boulder | 2nd | DL - 31st, OLY - 21st |
Stephen Garr | GCU | 3rd | OLY - 43rd |
Conrad Sanders | U of A | 4th | DNS |
Charlie Smoak | Wingate | 6th | OLY - 11th |
Martin Garcia | Wingate | 7th | OLY - 27th |
Kevin Burke | West point | 1st | DNS |
Adler Brininger | West point | 2nd | DL - 25th, OLY - 31st |
Samuel Andrews | West point | 3rd | DL - 18th, OLY - 45th |
Tommy Doubleday | VT | - | OLY - 80th |
Jackson Harrell | MSU | - | DL - 9th, OLY - 34th |
Women's Contenders
Name | School | Conference Result | Nationals 23' |
Ava Smith | SBCC | 4th | DL - 14th, OLY - 16th |
Mckenzie Clark | Berkeley | 5th | OLY - 28th |
Bridget Patrick | Stanford | 6th | OLY - 72nd |
Madeline Tapp | CU Boulder | 2nd | OLY - 46th |
Shoshanah Stukas | GCU | 3rd | OLY - 50th |
Tenley Hughes | U of A | 4th | DNS |
Anna Besenyei | Queens | 3rd | DNS |
Abby Kim | NAVY | 4th | OLY - 36th |
Anna Heard | UW-Madison | 1st | OLY - 163rd |
Rachel Ilgen | UW-Madison | 2nd | DL - 15th, OLY -19th |
Amanda Joy | Northeastern University | 1st | DL - 20th, OLY - 30th |
Emma McGovern | West Point | 2nd | DNF |
Anna Pertl | Yale | 3rd | OLY - 84th |
Bella Chirafisi | Colorado St | - | DL - 42nd, OLY - 197th |
Men's Favorites
Name | School | Conference Result | Nationals 23' |
Wiktor Rajca | Berkeley | 1st | OLY - 37th |
Edoardo Leone | UCLA | 2nd | DL - 14th, OLY - 24th |
Mark Romano | USAF | 1st | DL - 10th, OLY - 6th |
Jeremy Maclean | Queens | 1st | DNS |
Luis Steiert | Wingate | 2nd | DL - 5th, OLY - 3rd |
Dan Odell | Queens | 3rd | OLY - 16th |
Xoel Abad | Wingate | 4th | DL - DNF, OLY - 8th |
Tristen Jones | Queens | 5th | OLY - 18th |
Jake Baugher | Wingate | DNS | DL - 2nd, OLY - 5th |
Joshua Berles | Queens | DNS | DNS |
Daniel Gossow | Queens | 5th (DL) | OLY - 9th |
Ben Capozzi | Queens | 6th (DL) | OLY - DNF |
Women's Favorites
Name | School | Conference Result | Nationals 23' |
Gigi Mitchell | UCSB | 1st | OLY - 44th |
Fiona Davoudi | UC Davis | 2nd | DL - 24th, OLY - 25th |
Joanna Coker | UCSD | 3rd | DNS |
Annie Meeder | CU Boulder | 1st | OLY - 34th |
Jana Millat | Queens | 1st | OLY - 20th |
Clare Anne Dasso | Queens | 2nd | DNS |
What I Expect:
With the DL and MTR on day one, and the Olympic on day two, this race is slightly different than the format from the early 2010's. Back then, DL was day #1, Olympic was the morning of day #2, and MTR was afternoon of day #2. What that meant was the deep teams that could rest someone from the Olympic (rarely happened) had a massive advantage on the MTR. That is no longer the case. In the MTR, Cal Berkley returns as the reigning National MTR Champs. Queens took 2nd in the MTR last year, NAVY was 3rd, Colorado St was 4th, and Cal Poly was 5th (CU Boulder had a DQ I believe). I expect each of these same 5 teams, along with CU Boulder to be in contention for the win. I could see a few more WCCTC teams sneak into the mix as well due to historically having some of the strongest women in the field. This MTR / DL course has a little bit of technicality in it, for a full DL and MTR course preview check out my YouTube Video Here. For the DL, its very hard to predict what will happen. I do think this course potentially favoring a group of 5-10 athletes that swim well and can get a gap on the main group. DL format usually rewards strong swim-runners but I think the course has potential to also reward aggressive riding. However, we will see if either race has people take that risk or if it comes together into a bigger group and thus becomes a running race. For the Olympic, this is my old training grounds from back when I could hold 448 watts for 30 minutes. If you need a coach to improve your FTP send me a inquiry (shameless plug). This course is not very technical, but it does have some fast descents depending on if there is any crosswind. I hit 50mph a few times in the canyon section of the ride during training, but you really have to hammer the crest of a climb to make that happen. I think it will reward big power riders (*who can still climb well). I think the WCCTC who raced at the famous MTS course for their conference championship have a big advantage as this bike course plays out in a similar fashion. What will be exciting to see is if big gaps open up, if anyone "overrode" to get the big gap. Because with a big hill near mile 4 of the run, if you go above redline you will pay on the back half of the run. All this to say I don't expect super fast times but I do think it should play out in a exciting way! Ill stay away from trying to predict the top 5 athletes this year, but best of luck to everyone racing!
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