2023 NCAA Triathlon nationals was absolutely incredible! The athletes put on one heck of a show this year in the fastest field to date. If you missed it, check out some of the NCAA Nationals 2023 race-week VLOG for a behind the scenes look at some of the top teams leading into nationals (VLOG has since been deleted*).
The Race
The atmosphere and crowd at this race was absolutely electric. Team chants, fans screaming, incredible racing, there is truly nothing like NCAA Nationals in Tempe, AZ. This race is pretty much a continental cup now due to the talent.
A few weeks ago, I made a Nationals Prediction Formula of the top 100 ranked athletes trying to simulate the "A heat" and how it would play out. I also broke down each of the top 13 ranked teams in detail for what strengths and weaknesses they had heading into Nationals. My model correctly predicted 46 of the top 50, and 16 of the top 25 finishers. While predicting draft-legal is very difficult due to so many variables, the prediction model did fairly well. More of this after I show everyone the data of the race.
The Swim
Heading into this race I made a few predictions: I expected ASU to put 4-5 up at the front of the race and to push a break away, and Queens to put 2-3 in a break or 4-5 in a larger group. My interpretation of previous results showed Queens and Denver were swimming much better than years past. I also said U of A would dominate the swim, but if they needed 2-3 of those athletes to stay up front to contend with TCU for 5th and that "large packs" would help them ride better. Here is a table of the top 15 swim teams, using a average of their 5 scorers (not their 5 best swimmers). Note, Queens had their #3 DNF on the run despite being front pack, so she is not in this calculation or they would have jumped to 3rd in the swim rankings and outswam ASU for the first time.
U of Arizona | 10:26:12 | 1st |
USF | 10:31:48 | 2nd |
ASU | 10:38:00 | 3rd |
Queens | 10:40:00* | 4th |
TCU | 10:40:12 | 5th |
Denver | 10:49:48 | 6th |
ETSU | 10:53:48 | 7th |
LRU | 11:05:24 | 8th |
USD | 11:07:12 | 9th |
NAVY | 11:18:24 | 10th |
CMU | 11:29:00 | 11th |
Wingate | 11:31:36 | 12th |
Drury | 11:37:36 | 13th |
Duquesne | 11:51:36 | 14th |
NCC | 12:19:12 | 15th |
My takeaway out of the water was that USF and Queens had swam very well. USF has had a swim dominant team with this group in the past, but hats off to Coach Sonni Dyer on Queen's swim progression compared to last year. This was Queens best swim in years. They clearly put a emphasis on the swim this year after ASU established a break away last year.
ASU also swam well despite two of their superstars who got beat up in the swim. TCU also swam better than regionals. One of the great swims of the day in regards to previous rankings was by ETSU. Congrats to their team on swimming better than their regional qualifer and peaking at Nationals.
The Bike
Early on the bike, a massive front pack emerged that was 21 athletes by the end of the bike. This immediately looked like it was going to become a running race as a result. The main group were followed by a group of 19 who were at one point only 0:34 seconds down on lap #2 but fell to 0:51 seconds down heading into T2. The 3 top ranked teams, ASU, Queens, and USF all had 4 athletes in the lead group. A big surprise was that Amber Schlebusch, reigning 2022 National Champion and Sidney Clement, 2023 Western Regional Champion were both in the chase group. It also included 2022 DII National Champion Julia Kekkonen from Wingate and top ranked DII athlete Sabrina Fleig from LRU. However, Queens top ranked athlete Beth Cook also had multiple punctures on the ride while in the lead group and kept following slightly off the group waiting for her tires to re-seal around corners and causing some major stress on the QU side. She did end up bridging back onto the lead group by lap 3 of the ride but it is safe to say both Queens and ASU fans were sweating watching the bike section play out.
Here are the # of athletes in the lead group heading into T2:
ASU | 4 |
Queens | 4 |
USF | 4 |
U of A | 3 |
Denver | 2 |
TCU | 2 |
ETSU | 1 |
USD | 1 |
Here are how many athletes from each team were in the 2nd pack heading into T2:
ASU | 3 |
Queens | 3 |
Denver | 3 |
USF | 2 |
TCU | 2 |
ETSU | 2 |
LRU | 2 |
CMU | 1 |
Wingate | 1 |
This means Queens and ASU were the only two teams who had all 7 athletes in either the first or second pack. With Queens as the fastest "ranked" run team on paper heading into Nationals, they were looking like they might pull off the upset. This also shows the top ranked teams got to the front of the race early and stayed at the front of the race. ASU and Queens tend to always be strong on the bike, but Denver used the ride to put their runners in position to try and chase down USF on the run.
Top ranked average bike times:
ASU | 34:14:00 | 1st |
Denver | 34:22:12 | 2nd |
Queens | 34:23:48 | 3rd |
ETSU | 34:50:36 | 4th |
USF | 34:52:00 | 5th |
TCU | 35:00:24 | 6th |
U of Arizona | 35:11:24 | 7th |
LRU | 35:38:24 | 8th |
USD | 35:44:24 | 9th |
CMU | 36:08:24 | 10th |
Wingate | 36:17:48 | 11th |
NAVY | 36:24:36 | 12th |
Drury | 37:29:48 | 13th |
NCC | 38:04:00 | 14th |
Duquesne | 38:12:00 | 15th |
My takeaway off the bike was that Queens was in a very good spot heading into the run, and that ASU was in a slightly dangerous spot with Amber and Sid in the second pack, especially when the chase pack fell to 0:51 seconds down on the last lap. Even with that gap, I expected Amber to make the podium and maybe even contend for a win due to her recent 16:55 run split in World Triathlon Cup: Rome. I also thought USF had a slight edge over Denver and U of Arizona had a slight edge over TCU heading into the run due to more athletes in the front pack. LRU was one of the teams who I thought would run very well, but off the bike with only 2 in the chase group I thought it would be hard for them to crack the top 7 overall, though they were in a fantastic spot off the bike in regards to winning the DII race.
The Run
Despite Queens being the top ranked run team on paper and posting some incredible run splits at the Eastern Regional Qualifier, in one of my Instagram reels I predicted that ASU would still win this race if it came down to a running race primarily due to Amber, Naomi, and Heidi who are very elite runners. This race became a race to be won on the run and we finally had Queens and ASU going head to head on the run for the first time ever! We also had Denver and USF in a very tight battle for 3rd. USF had more up the road but Denver was running stronger. U of Arizona and TCU were also in a tight battle for 5th with U of A having more up the road but TCU running stronger. During the first lap of the run, we saw Maira Carreau from Denver emerge by the early race leader on the run, followed closely by Naoimi Ruff with both clearly running sub 18 pace, with another small gap to Josi Seerig of ETSU and Heidi Jarankova of ASU. In a remarkable run split Amber Schlebusch, who had the fastest run split in the race, was running down almost everyone and was already up into the top 5 by the end of the first lap. She was followed by Kira Gupta-Baltazar of USF and 3 Queens athletes with Sam McInnes, Beth Cook not quite running on pace to their Eastern Regional run splits but Cara MacDonald looked to be running well for Queens. Sabrina Fleig was also running very quick from the second pack and emerging as the favorite for the DII individual champion. In a shocking change of events, Queens easter Regional #3 scorer was at a water station pouring water on her head due to overheating and had to DNF, virtually ending any chance Queens had at a win. By the end of the race, ASU proved to have the mental tenacity to emerge as the DI National Champions. LRU grabbed the DII championship, and DIII powerhouse NCC took home the DIII Championship. Also, big congrats to Cliff English on his top 3 athletes development: Amber: in 2022 she was 1st, in 2023 she was 3rd (fastest run split). Naomi: in 2022 she was 25th, in 2023 she was 2nd (Run Splits: 20:09 in 22', 17:51 in 23'). Heidi: in 2022: she was 18th, in 2023 she took 6th. (Run Splits: 20:10 in 22', 18:30 in 23'). Many athletes I spoke with argued this years run course was also a little slower (0:15-30 sec) than last year. # of athletes who ran sub 18: 4 athletes (last year was 2) # of athletes who ran sub 19: 13 athletes (last year was 7) # of athletes who ran sub 20: 37 athletes (last year was 21) Here are the average Run Splits for each team's top 5 scorers:
ASU | 18:44:00 | 1st |
Denver | 19:15:12 | 2nd |
TCU | 19:32:48 | 3rd |
QUEENS | 19:33:24 | 4th |
USF | 19:41:24 | 5th |
ETSU | 19:44:00 | 6th |
LRU | 19:49:36 | 7th |
UofA | 20:02:36 | 8th |
USD | 20:44:12 | 9th |
CMU | 20:59:48 | 10th |
Wingate | 21:20:00 | 11th |
NCC | 21:25:48 | 12th |
Duquesne | 21:46:36 | 13th |
Drury | 21:47:24 | 14th |
NAVY | 21:53:36 | 15th |
My takeaways from the run were that ASU ran fantastic as expected. Denver, ETSU, and CMU all had better runs than expected, bravo to them for peaking at nationals. Queens was one of the major surprises on the run, as last year they outran everyone in the race. They outran Denver by 0:21 per athlete at the Eastern Regional Qualifier this year but were outran by Denver by 0:18 seconds per athlete at nationals for a 0:39 sec per athlete flip. Granted, a majority of this was due to their #3 scorer "on paper" getting a DNF.
Results
Team Champions by Division:
Division IÂ
1. Arizona State University, 999 points Â
2. Queens University of Charlotte, 967Â
3. University of San Francisco, 933Â
Division IIÂ
1. Lenoir-Rhyne University, 847Â Â
2. Wingate University, 753Â
3. Colorado Mesa University, 723 Â
Division IIIÂ
1. North Central College, 623Â
2. Trine University, 420Â Â
3. Eastern Mennonite University, 406Â
Individual All-Americans By Division:Â
Division IÂ
1. Maira Carreau, University of Denver, 1:03:22Â
2. Naomi Ruff, Arizona State University, 1:03:32Â
3. Amber Schlebusch, Arizona State University, 1:03:49Â
4. Josi Seerig, East Tennessee State University, 1:03:58Â
5. Heidi Jurankova, Arizona State University, 1:04:06Â
6. Kira Gupta-Baltazar, University of San Francisco, 1:04:27Â
7. Beth Cook, Queens University of Charlotte, 1:04:30Â
Division IIÂ
1. Sabrina Fleig, Lenoir-Rhyne University, 1:04:35Â
2. Julia Kekkonen, Wingate University, 1:05:37Â
3. Shannon Feran, Colorado Mesa University, 1:06:02Â
4. Zoila Sicilia, Lenoir-Rhyne University, 1:06:17Â
5. Tamar Veltman, Wingate University, 1:07:33Â
6. Eliska Rihova, Lenoir-Rhyne University, 1:07:43Â
7. Zoe Van Dijk, Drury University, 1:08:43
Division IIIÂ
1. Hailey Poe, North Central College, 1:09:27Â
2. Charlotte Kumler, North Central College, 1:11:42Â
3. Bethany Smeed, North Central College, 1:12:08Â
4. Grace Huisman, Trine University, 1:13:33Â
5. Scarlett Schuth, North Central College, 1:13:51Â
6. Jenna Weaver, Eastern Mennonite University, 1:17:19Â
7. Riga Grubis, Willamette University, 1:18:15
*36 programs competed at nationals meaning the Championship Status criteria was not met. Of those 36, some did not have a full scoring roster as well. Full Results
Wave1 Performance Prediction Model Results
I got 7 of the top 13 teams correct, and the 6 I missed I missed by 1 single position. I also had Hannah Ye racing for TCU in my prediction formula, which based on her AG run time I believe would have flipped TCU to 5th by 1-3 points and U of A to 6th, and thus would have moved my formula to 9 of 13 being correct. Obviously, hindsight is 20/20 and I do not mean that to critique any selections by their staff. (*edit, their staff took strong offense to this post).
Individual Prediction Model Results
Below are the stats of my prediction model. In the top 100, I averaged within just over 1/2 of a positions for each of the athletes. 46 of my top 50 placed top 50, 16 of my top 25 placed top 25, 6 of my top 10 placed top 10. My top 50 average run time was 19:03, this course proved top be a little slower and the top 50 times averaged 19:40. I now believe the East Regional run course was a bit faster than I expected, for example Maïra ran 17:06 at ERQ and 17:46 at nationals while winning both races. Beth ran 17:20 at ERQ (2nd place) and 18:47 at nationals (7th place). If I use that data to adjust all run times by about -(:30) seconds faster, the prediction model comes within 0:07 sec accuracy per athlete for the top 50 athletes. One thing I got wrong was a 10-12 person elite break away: Amber Schlebusch - ASU - missed Zoe Adam - ASU - made Sidney Clement - ASU - missed Faith Dasso - ASU - made Molly Elliott - USF - made Kira Gupta-Baltazar - USF - made Grace Reeder - U of A - made Dana Prikrylova - U of A - made Maira Carreau - Denver - made Cara MacDonald - Queens - made Sam McInnes - Queens- made Beth Cook - Queens - made The race had a very large 21 girl front group. One thing I got correct was multiple large chase groups with the 3rd group unable to move up toward the second chase group. I also got correct that ASU would win if it came to a running race. For devil's advocate, if all 5 Queens girls would have ran 0:40 seconds off their regional qualifier time like Maira Carreau, they would have lost by a mere 4 points. But when athletes #3 dropped out, the 7-10 point loss I had in the prediction model was completely out the window. I did say Denver was flying under the radar and they tied USF for 3rd, but lost out on the tie breaker. Incredible performance by Denver regardless. Another good performace that I predicted was ETSU, who ended up being the highest climber in rankings based on the CTCA ranking hjeading into the race. Overall, I will keep this data in mind going into next year when trying to compare the east and west times leading into nationals. Congrats to each of the teams and athletes on a incredible job this year. I also expected more athletes to run sub 19 off the bike this year, but a lot of that came from the East regional Qualifier run times which we now know were around 40 sec per mile fast. Here is some of the data:
Here is the prediction model top 50 results: Place difference represents their place in regards to the "prediction".
Overall, I think my predictions were accurate for this being draft legal racing. I use a very similar approach of analyzing data when coaching each of my athletes.
If you have any questions about NCAA Triathlon or are looking for a coach please email: jtr@wave1performance.com
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