Earlier today NCAA Triathlon started a 2 day format for Nationals. Due to weather, the swim location was relocated to another lake with a two day format of swimming on day 1 with the bike-run leg being held tomorrow based on the "gaps" from todays swim. This post will primarily focus on the D1 athletes from the 5 programs in the Championship hunt: ASU, University of Arizona, Queens University of Charlotte, TCU, and University of Denver. Below is the swim results, with D2 and D3 athletes removed from the order. I used a excel function on the data so if any D1 athletes were removed from the data I apologize. Also, at the time this was written Wave 2 and Wave 3 results were not yet even published. At Wave1 Performance, we are huge advocates of DII and DIII racing, but they are not covered in this article.
What Does The 2024 NCAA Triathlon Nationals Swim Data Show?
It was no surprise that former National Champion Kira Gupta-Baltazar lead out of the water, as she did last year in 2023. However, initial reactions are that the time gaps were significantly closer this year compared to 2023 NCAA Triathlon Nationals. Almost everyone swam much closer to Kira this year than in 2023. In the data below you see the "Gap" tab represents their gap for 2024 to Kira. The "Gap 23" Tab Represents their gap to Kira in 2023. We will explain the adjusted tab in a moment here.
We must adjust the data to show that Kira's gap to 5th in 2023 was a massive 0:33 seconds but that it was down to a more realistic 0:12 second gap today in 2024. This allows us to analyze the most improved swimmers under the "adjusted" tab. In the 'adjusted' tab, green represents significant improvement, yellow shows slight improvement, and red indicates slower times compared to 2023. Athletes who did not race in 2023 are removed from this list. We saw massive swim improvements from Elizabeth Harita, Cara MacDonald, and one of the Individual title favorites: Naomi Ruff. Many other athletes had significant improvements. For anything athletes having a sub-par day, keep your head up. Open water has many variables and sometime bad days happen that are outside of our control. Starting location, training leading into Nationals, life stress, open water skills, and some luck all impact open water times.
Furthermore, last year we saw the top 18 athletes made the first big pack with 19 athletes falling into the second large chase pack that ended up heading into T2 about 0:50 seconds behind the front pack. Obviously this is a entirely different course and format, so predicting the amount of people in each pack is nearly impossible. All athletes starting the bike knowing their time gap and with full energy for tomorrow can also drastically change things. That said, if this weekend plays out with a similar format, that would put the following athletes into the following packs:
If it plays out in this way, it would give ASU and University of Arizona a very strong start heading into the run. Not that pack 2 athletes are in that "can go either direction range" depending how the race plays out. The amount of athletes each team has per pack based on the above chart is listed here:
Lastly, when we analyze the specific swim times data we see that ASU was the top performing swim team, with University of Arizona and TCU (partially due to Kira) closely behind. Here are the average Swim times per teams top 5 athletes:
Team Analysis
2024 NCAA Triathlon Nationals show us that Arizona State University and University of Arizona are off to a very good start (as expected). Despite the current CTCA ranking system having them 3rd and 2nd, they were my two favorites for the title "on paper". However, TCU, Queens University of Charlotte, and University of Denver are all still very much in the hunt and very capable of biking and running their way into Championship Contention. Time gaps are also closer when compared to 2023 which allows many different ways this race can play out. Also, last spring Clermont (wet conditions) had numerous crashes and mechanicals, so this race is far from over. That said, ASU and University of Arizona are in the drivers seat for the Team Title heading into day #2.
Individual Analysis
When we analyze individual raced we see our three favorites: Naomi Ruff, Beth Cook, and Kelly Wetteland all had fantastic swims and should be in the lead pack fairly easily. Many other dark horses also had fantastic swims with Sidney Clemente, Jossi Seerig, and Cara MacDonald all swimming very strong.
2022 Individual National Champion Amber Schlebusch also had a much better swim than last year and is within striking distance of the front pack. Running sensation, Lidia Russel swam 0:09 seconds better than last year and appears to be safely in the second chase group. If that group stays within striking distance or closes the gap to the front group, she can run with anyone and is sitting in a better spot out of the water than she was last year.
Looking for a coach? Coach JT Rodgers has coached the following:
NCAA: Numerous Scorers, 5x NCAA All Americans, 4x NCAA Individual Podiums & 1x NCAA Individual National Champion, 1x Future Olympian.
Collegiate Club: 1x Individual National Champion, 1x Team Championship, and 9x Individual Podiums.
USAT AG Nationals Overall Draft-Legal Individual Podium
Head Coach University California Irvine (2020-21)
Assistant NCAA & Club Coach / Director of Swim Development @ Queens University of CLT (2018-2020)-2x NCAA DII Championships-1x (their first ever) USAT Collegiate Combined National Championship-Promoted to Head of Swim Development during Second Season-Offered Club Head Coach Job (declined)
Head Swim Coach Lifetime Athletic Charlotte (2017-2020)
Head Swim Coach Irvine Novaquatics (2012-17)
If interested email: jtr@wave1performance.com
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